Wednesday, January 31, 2018

"Your Speech Is Packed With Misunderstood, Unconscious Messages"



"Many scientists, though, think that our cultural fixation with stamping out what they call “disfluencies” is deeply misguided. Saying um is no character flaw, but an organic feature of speech; far from distracting listeners, there’s evidence that it focuses their attention in ways that enhance comprehension... 

Since disfluencies show that a speaker is thinking carefully about what she is about to say, they provide useful information to listeners, cueing them to focus attention on upcoming content that’s likely to be meaty. One famous example comes from the movie Jurassic Park. When Jeff Goldblum’s character is asked whether a group of only female animals can breed, he replies, “No, I’m, I’m simply saying that life, uh…finds a way.” The disfluencies emphasize that he’s coming to grips with something not easy to explain—an idea that turns out to be a key part of the movie."


Related: Use of "like"; lol as punctuation 


FB: "Experiments with ums or uhs spliced in or out of speech show that when words are preceded by disfluencies, listeners recognize them faster and remember them more accurately. In some cases, disfluencies allow listeners to make useful predictions about what they’re about to hear. In one study, for example, listeners correctly inferred that speakers’ stumbles meant that they were describing complicated conglomerations of shapes rather than to simple single shapes."

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

"A disability is a mismatch between a person’s abilities and their environment"



"Even the most physically-based disability is impairing only to the extent that the culture allows it to be. In a culture without paved roads, wheelchairs, and wheelchair accessible buildings, being unable to walk would mean being unable to go out in public, a very severe impairment. In a culture with these technologies, being unable to walk is much less impairing. Similarly, Braille means that being blind no longer means being unable to read and write. Sign language means deaf people can speak a full, rich language instead of whatever jury-rigged system of home-signs and gestures they can cobble together with their families. All these disabilities involve an obvious physical inability, but it would be profoundly misleading to talk about the severity of these disabilities without reference to the accessibility of their environments. All the more so for invisible, more ambiguous, brain-based disabilities...

The absence or impairment of a trait is only considered a disability when everyone is expected to possess it. For example, height is considered a desirable trait; taller people are considered more attractive (and taller men may receive higher salaries). However, being short is only considered a disability for a would-be basketball player. Similarly, although beauty is valued, we don’t expect everyone to be beautiful, nor do most careers or social roles require it. Thus, an ugly person would not be considered disabled unless he or she aspired to be a model. By contrast, we deem intelligence and its imperfect proxy measure, IQ, to be necessary for everyone regardless of profession, and so consider a significantly below-average IQ to be a disability...

having a disability often means having more trouble doing something that’s hard for everyone, more often. That’s one reason for the “curb cut effect”: assistive technology for people with disabilities often helps everyone. Inversely, inventions designed to make tasks easier for the general population disproportionately help those with disabilities...

recognizing the essential role of our environments in our functioning lets us take responsibility for achieving the right fit between ourselves and our life circumstances. We can choose to make small changes to our environments and the way we operate in them, ask for help, or leave in search of a better fit."


I went to a talk a few years ago about the biology/politics of disability and the speaker introduced a lot of these ideas. It is so helpful to define disability using the title of this article.


Related: Chronotype

Monday, January 29, 2018

"Why Physicists Are Saying Consciousness Is A State Of Matter, Like a Solid, A Liquid Or A Gas"



"In 2008, Tononi proposed that a system demonstrating consciousness must have two specific traits. First, the system must be able to store and process large amounts of information. In other words consciousness is essentially a phenomenon of information.

And second, this information must be integrated in a unified whole so that it is impossible to divide into independent parts. That reflects the experience that each instance of consciousness is a unified whole that cannot be decomposed into separate components.

Both of these traits can be specified mathematically allowing physicists like Tegmark to reason about them for the first time. He begins by outlining the basic properties that a conscious system must have...

the problem is why we perceive the universe as the semi-classical, three dimensional world that is so familiar. When we look at a glass of iced water, we perceive the liquid and the solid ice cubes as independent things even though they are intimately linked as part of the same system. How does this happen? Out of all possible outcomes, why do we perceive this solution?

Tegmark does not have an answer. But what’s fascinating about his approach is that it is formulated using the language of quantum mechanics in a way that allows detailed scientific reasoning. And as a result it throws up all kinds of new problems that physicists will want to dissect in more detail.

Take for example, the idea that the information in a conscious system must be unified. That means the system must contain error-correcting codes that allow any subset of up to half the information to be reconstructed from the rest."


Sunday, January 28, 2018

"The late effects of stress: New insights into how the brain responds to trauma"



"In their recent study, Chattarji's team has established that the new nerve connections in the amygdala lead to heightened electrical activity in this region of the brain.

"Most studies on stress are done on a chronic stress paradigm with repeated stress, or with a single stress episode where changes are looked at immediately afterwards - like a day after the stress," says Farhana Yasmin, one of the Chattarji's students. "So, our work is unique in that we show a reaction to a single instance of stress, but at a delayed time point," she adds.

Furthermore, a well-known protein involved in memory and learning, called NMDA-R has been recognised as one of the agents that bring about these changes. Blocking the NMDA-R during the stressful period not only stopped the formation of new synapses, it also blocked the increase in electrical activity at these synapses. "So we have for the first time, a molecular mechanism that shows what is required for the culmination of events ten days after a single stress," says Chattarji. "In this study, we have blocked the NMDA receptor during stress. But we would like to know if blocking the molecule after stress can also block the delayed effects of the stress. And if so, how long after the stress can we block the receptor to define a window for therapy," he adds."


Saturday, January 27, 2018

"Stop Trying to Save the World"

"In 2010, “Frontline” returned to the schools where they had filmed children laughing on the merry-go-rounds, splashing each other with water. They discovered pumps rusting, billboards unsold, women stooping to turn the wheel in pairs. Many of the villages hadn’t even been asked if they wanted a PlayPump, they just got one, sometimes replacing the handpumps they already had. In one community, adults were paying children to operate the pump.

Let’s not pretend to be surprised by any of this. The PlayPump story is a sort of Mad Libs version of a narrative we’re all familiar with by now: Exciting new development idea, huge impact in one location, influx of donor dollars, quick expansion, failure...

Over the last year, I read every book, essay, and roman à clef about my field I could find. I came out convinced that the problems with international development are real, they are fundamental, and I might, in fact, be one of them. But I also found that it’s too easy to blame the PlayPumps of the world. Donors, governments, the public, the media, aid recipients themselves—they all contribute to the dysfunction. Maybe the problem isn’t that international development doesn’t work. It’s that it can’t...

What I want to talk shit on is the paradigm of the Big Idea—that once we identify the correct one, we can simply unfurl it on the entire developing world like a picnic blanket... The repeated “success, scale, fail” experience of the last 20 years of development practice suggests something super boring: Development projects thrive or tank according to the specific dynamics of the place in which they’re applied. It’s not that you test something in one place, then scale it up to 50. It’s that you test it in one place, then test it in another, then another. No one will ever be invited to explain that in a TED talk."
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120178/problem-international-development-and-plan-fix-it

!
There is so much fixing-the-world happening and so little fixed world happening and there are so, so many assumptions baked into the front end. There is so much "I have a hammer, there must be nails somewhere - or at least problems that I can squint at until they become nails".

What does it mean to "do good"? I feel like we've never started with that question, or done the extremely important work of defining it for ourselves instead of being pushed towards preexisting constructs.

I feel like we're all just chasing oversimplified examples of, like, one person. And I feel like it is often phrased in the context of guilt or obligation. That's so sour.

There isn't enough introspection, asking what the "problems" are or where they come from or what our roles are or what it looks like to live in a world without those problems. To ask ourselves: is this our story?

Related: blind side mom essay

Friday, January 26, 2018

"We Are All Princes, Paupers, and Part of the Human Family"



"Chances are, if you have a famous ancestor far enough back that finding out about them is a surprise, you share them with a small city of other people. And the farther back you go, the truer that is. In 2004, statistician Joseph Chang, computer scientist Douglas Rohde, and writer Steve Olson used a computer model of human genetics to show that anyone who was alive 2,000-3,000 years ago is either the ancestor of everyone who’s now alive, or no one at all. Think about that: If a person alive in 1,000 BCE has any descendants alive today, they have all of us—even people from different continents and isolated populations. This line of thought led to the revelation that everyone of European heritage alive today is a descendant of Charlemagne, who ruled over much of Europe as the first Holy Roman Emperor...

99.9 percent of your genome is the same as that of every other human being (apart from the x and y chromosomes), and that .1 percent of variation in each person gets thinned out pretty quickly across the generations, as each child gets half of each of her parents’ genomes, passes on half to each of her children, and so on. Geneticist Luke Jostins did a nice mathematical analysis and estimated that you have only about a 12 percent chance of being genetically related to an ancestor 10 generations ago; by the time you get to a 14-generation ancestor, the probability is nearly zero."

Thursday, January 25, 2018

"Zambia women's 'day off for periods' sparks debate"



"The legal definition is not precise - women can take the day when they want and do not have to provide any medical justification, leading some to question the provision.
"I think it's a good law because women go through a lot when they are on their menses [periods]," says Ndekela Mazimba, who works in public relations.
Ms Mazimba is neither married nor does she have children but she takes her Mother's Day every month because of her gruelling period pains.

"You might find that on the first day of your menses, you'll have stomach cramps - really bad stomach cramps. You can take whatever painkillers but end up in bed the whole day."



And don't tell me "we should fix sexism so thst woken don't need these days"; in a world where sexism is fixed, it will be easy to step away from this. 

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

"Panic and a PhD"



"Stress is an essential reaction to danger, a mechanism ingrained in us long ago to force a “fight” or “fly” response. However, it’s how we react to stress that impacts our long-term health, including the potential development of anxiety through cognitive distortions and unhealthy coping mechanisms. While we three may have already been naturally anxious people, this became increasingly heightened when under the stress of working on our PhDs... 

What’s most confusing to those around us is that we were “good students” and appeared so calm, leading others to wonder how and why we could ever be worried. But those logical thoughts are pushed out by cognitive distortions when five years of work becomes an important crossroads to you, where your work ethic, intelligence, and passion are tested.
We thought that once we defended our dissertations, the stress and anxiety would disappear. It didn’t. We’ve obtained one of the highest levels of academic achievement. We found great jobs immediately doing what we love. And every day we have to work to manage our anxiety. We believe that more honesty and communication on the topic, more acknowledgment of this as a reality during graduate school, and more support (even when we didn’t realize we needed it) would have been helpful. We wish we could have anticipated the amount of anxiety we might experience during a PhD program."

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

"What Is Faculty Diversity Worth to a University?"



"Those like me who pay attention to diversity in higher education call this work “invisible labor”—not because no one sees it but because institutions don’t value it with the currency they typically use to reward faculty work: reappointment, tenure, and promotion. Chances are a faculty member of color is not going to get a sabbatical or a grant from her institution because she contributes to the diversity mission her university probably has posted somewhere on its website. She certainly isn’t going to get tenure for it... 

This imbalance—this extra burden on minority faculty—has ever been thus. Women of color, for example, tend to take on more service than their male counterparts. Similarly, for me and other nonwhite faculty members I know, much, if not most, of this service revolves around supporting students of color—sponsoring campus groups, providing additional guidance (especially for first-generation college students), and intervening on their behalf with administrative officers. On top of that, we’re also called on to “diversify” campus committees and to represent the views of a variety of ethnic groups in even the most informal conversations. And while advice about how to manage the pressure is readily available, it’s hard to take the long view and think about tenure and promotion when college students need, and are seeking, guidance as they challenge their institutions to make diversity a priority in word and in deed... 

In my diversity research, I am particularly interested in how the academy is structurally hostile to meaningful diversity. Specifically, I look at the ways colleges bring faculty of color to campus with no clear plan about how to support them once they arrive. I wonder, for example, in the consumer-based model of higher education, what happens to the Latina assistant professor of history in a room full of white students who are hearing for the first time that the history they have learned is complex in ways that implicate them? Or the black sociologist charged with teaching urban studies to kids who grew up with the invisible safety nets of the suburbs? In political-science courses across the country, faculty of color are, in all likelihood, discussing the election of Donald Trump in classrooms with students who might think all his rhetoric is just talk. If, generally speaking, classes that ask students to reexamine their assumptions about race and racism are challenging, what is in place to protect faculty who lead difficult class conversations in this particularly volatile moment?"


!!! It's those poorly requested diversity statements in applications and vague, over-general diversity policies written by and for white men that make it clear that a certain kind of labor is always going to be expected of me as a female scientist of color. 

There is a certain smile and body position and welcoming delight and performative ease that I have been asked to turn on - for the cameras, for the potential recruit, for the white boss who just read an article about Black Lives Matter and is feeling momentarily conscious of not having any black friends. It's my job to fulfill the colorblind dream of stock-photo *diversity and inclusion* that all the administrators want to point to whenever they don't want to actually address racism at their university. 


FB: "Black faculty report feeling more vulnerable, and the invisible labor is hyper visible in this post-Ferguson, post-Obama moment. All too often, when deans, provosts, and presidents call for panels, workshops, and university discussions, there’s a faculty member of color who has to wrestle with how to contribute (or with whether or not they want to) while still doing the work their colleagues get to do without the same burden."

Monday, January 22, 2018

"There's Basically No Way Not to Be a Gentrifier"



"The upshot here is not that we should all descend into nihilistic real estate hedonism. But we need to recognize what's really going on: that what we call "gentrification" these days is only one facet of the much larger issue of economic segregation. That people get priced out of the places they already live in is only half of the problem. The other half, which affects an order of magnitude more people, is that people can't move to the neighborhoods to which they'd like to move, and are stuck in places with worse schools, more crime, and inferior access to jobs and amenities like grocery stores. That problem is easier to ignore for a variety of reasons, but it's no less of a disaster.

And all this, in turn, is the result of a curiously dysfunctional housing system – one that's set up to allow market forces to push up prices without regard for people who might be excluded, and to prevent market forces from building more homes and mitigating that exclusion."



Again, our individual decisions can't sure a systemic problem, they can only make us feel individually less guilty.

Sunday, January 21, 2018

"From Pickup Artist to Pariah"

"“All of my life I have looked for certainty and attempted to make sense of the world,” he said. That search for an explanatory framework led him to the manosphere, where his tendency toward judgment was amplified and given direction. “It’s like a rut in your brain. I’ve had this my whole life, in different arenas. Anger and judgment. Road rage or being mad at a customer who annoyed me. The actual thing to fix is why do I feel the need to — mentally or verbally or on Twitter — punish someone with words because they slighted me. The root of it is the need to judge the world because it doesn’t meet my expectation.”...

Before long, Jared’s sex life was like a part-time job. While some PUAs try to rack up as many one-night stands as possible, Jared was after a series of regular sex partners, what’s known in the Red Pill world as a harem. He hit on customers and friends, suppliers and strangers, women on Tinder and women on OKCupid. He had sex with women in the apartment above the coffee shop and in the garage out back. He created a spreadsheet that he updated with each conquest, color-coded based on how he met them and how the relationship ended. As soon as a new partner walked out the door, he’d rush to the computer to add her to the list, the thrill of quantification merging with the thrill of the chase...

Jared intended Holistic Game to be a positive, thoughtful contribution to the Red Pill universe. Early on, he wrote posts with titles like “Baudrillard’s Hyperreality and the Manosphere” and pointedly countered some of the worst Red Pill tropes about how women are sinister creatures who only want to humiliate men. He told me that the more hateful and racist parts of the manosphere disturbed him; he just appreciated the dating advice: “You eat the meat and spit out the bones, you know?”... even as Jared was getting what he purportedly wanted — plenty of sex with plenty of women — he became increasingly bitter and judgmental. Over time, his anger became directed not at a particular woman who flaked on him but at women as a group: “The hardest thing in game,” he tweeted, “is not hating women for how fucking stupid they can be.”...

asked him if he still wanted to follow the plan he’d written about in his pre-reflection-and-repentance era: fuck around as much as possible until age 38, then marry a 24- or 25-year-old. “Yeah,” he said without hesitation. “Derek Jeter’s doing it.” I must have looked incredulous. “It’s kind of a double standard, right?” he said. “Because everyone’s okay with him doing it, nobody has a problem with that.”
“Why do you want to marry a 25-year-old?” I asked.
“Hotness, absolutely,” he said.
http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/01/jared-rutledge-pickup-artist-c-v-r.html#

There isn't necessarily a lot of analysis in this article, there isn't necessarily a lot of wisdom or new thought to encounter, but the portion about Jared's movement towards the MRA thing is interesting to read.

Saturday, January 20, 2018

"Celebrities Reveal Their Public and Private Personas in Intimate Double-Portraits"



"While at the Toronto Film Festival, he asked 51 A-listers to share two sides of themselves in front of the camera. One demonstrates how they are in public while the other peers inward towards a side they might not show.

The settings for Walker’s diptych photographs were sparse. They “were given nothing but a bare table with a mark of tape,” which was the dividing line between their two selves. Once they crossed it, they could transform, and each had their own way of interpreting Walker’s request."


A little silly, but I found myself thinking about it repeatedly so I decided to pull it.


Maybe to do with the universality of public vs. private, maybe to do with the differences in the portraits of women and men

Friday, January 19, 2018

"Calling a Fascist a Fascist"



"The temptation to argue with the peddlers of hatred is great. How can we let stand the false equivalency between those promoting fascism and those opposing it? Surely we must prove the truth.
Perhaps. But getting into a war of evidence may simply provide opportunities for the forces of fascism to normalize and mainstream their views. It introduces and legitimates the idea that there is even a debate worth having.
A different approach would be to ask: What is the history of these groups, what is their purpose? What ideology is served by the deliberate falsifying of historical and contemporary facts? What do these groups want?"



Related: 
https://medium.com/intersections-of-identities/research-shows-prejudice-not-principle-often-underpins-free-speech-defense-of-racist-language-fa3d16f4041
https://medium.com/intersections-of-identities/empathy-wont-save-us-in-the-fight-against-oppression-here-s-why-5df9591f098d

"Knocking Down Straw Dolls: A Critique of Cynthia Eller’s The Myth of Matriarchal Prehistory: Why an Invented Past Won’t Give Women a Future"



"All this polarization and oversimplification avoids the real issue, which is not female domination in a reverse of historical female oppression, but the existence of egalitarian human societies: cultures that did not enforce a patriarchal double standard around sexuality, property, public office and space; that did not make females legal minors under the control of fathers, brothers, and husbands, without protection from physical and sexual abuse by same. We know of many societies that did not confine, seclude, veil, or bind female bodies, nor amputate or deform parts of those bodies. We know, as well, that there have been cultures that accorded women public leadership roles and a range of arts and professions, as well as freedom of movement, speech, and rights to make personal decisions. Many have embraced female personifications of the Divine, neither subordinating them to a masculine god, nor debarring masculine deities...

It is worth looking at the history of this idea more closely. Earlier writers had already begun to address the issue of female power as they encountered Indigenous societies in colonial contexts. Their accounts present a tangle of European projections based on everything from Greek Amazon traditions to Christian colonizers’ claims that Indigenous peoples worshipped devils. They also record their culture shock at encountering senior priestesses (as in the Philippines and Siberia) and female chieftains (as in Virginia and Delaware)...

For Gage [the Iriquois] acted as teachers who inspired a different vision of human relations than the patriarchal European model, and as elders who honored her with the rank of matron of the Wolf clan in the Mohawk nation. Sally Roesch Wagner has fleshed out the direct impact of Iroquois culture on Gage, Stanton, and other founders of the US women’s movement. Her research shows that these early feminists had frequent contact with the Haudenosaunee and were deeply impressed by the contrast in women’s status in the two cultures...

Ideas about an era of goddess veneration became widespread in the early 1960s, when James Mellaart excavated Çatal Höyük. Although Eller is reticent about it, it seems clear that another wave of “matriarchal” theory swept through in the mid-20th century, this time in the field of archaeology. It appears to have been fueled by the realization, as a result of many 20th century digs, that neolithic iconography was predominantly female. The Myth only acknowledges this second wave once, obliquely, by including a 1963 quote from Jacquetta Hawkes: “there is every reason to suppose that under the conditions of the primary Neolithic way of life mother-right and the clan system were still dominant.... Indeed, it is tempting to be convinced that the earliest Neolithic societies throughout their range in time and space gave woman the highest status she has ever known.”44 But by the late 60s, a reaction had set in against interpreting female images as goddesses (or as having any sacral power, for example as ancestor figures). The “New Archaeology” turned away from cultural analysis to an emphasis on scientific process and technology. The trend was simply to ignore the female figurines, although they were often classified in passing as “fertility idols,” “dancing girls,” “pretty ladies,” and “concubines.” Most were squirreled away in obscure journals as tiny, poorly reproduced black-and-white shots, while warriors got full-page color treatment in The Dawn of Man-type coffee table books. There was more than a reluctance to call them goddesses; details were typically omitted about the sites where they were discovered, and in what contexts, even about dates. Most readers did not notice this blank amidst the extensive analysis of weapons and tools: how is it possible to evaluate information that’s withheld?...

until recently archaeologists paid scant attention to evidence about gender. They made assumptions about the kind of grave goods that should go with males or females, sexing burials by grave goods rather than by skeleton analysis. Often, even usually, they failed to record relevant data."



I have no idea how to interpret the validity of any of these arguments, this is definitely not my field, but I feel like I learned a lot. Ancient cultures are so fascinating, thinking about all the ways of being human that have existed and looking at how we came to today's cultures.


I've been following the "suppressed histories" page on facebook and it's been a great decision.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

"Vitamin D Intake Needed to Maintain Target Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations in Participants with Low Sun Exposure and Dark Skin Pigmentation Is Substantially Higher Than Current Recommendations"



"The present study found that relatively high intakes of vitamin D would be needed to achieve serum 25(OH)D concentrations of 50 or 75 nmol/L for participants with low sun exposure. However, these results are relatively consistent with 2 recent studies that addressed this question with dose-response intervention trials. Cashman et al. (45) found that total intakes of 408 and 924 IU/d would be needed to maintain median serum 25(OH)D concentrations of 50 and 75 nmol/L, respectively, during the winter in Ireland and Northern Ireland...

In a second supplementation study conducted in New York (46), Black and White adults were recruited in winter and supplementation levels were adjusted at 8-wk intervals to achieve a serum 25(OH)D concentration of 75 nmol/L. Blacks had a mean total intake of 3916 IU/d and Whites had 3040 IU/d to achieve this level in 90% of participants. In the present study, we estimated that participants of AA with low sun exposure would need from 2100 to 3100 IU/d and participants of EA would need from 1000 to 2550 IU/d to reach 75 nmol/L, depending on the season."


This feels so under-studied and so important: People with dark skin living in parts of the world with low sun exposure might be super vitamin D deficient.


FB: "In summary, we have found that participants with high skin reflectance and high sun exposure are at low risk of vitamin D insufficiency and need a supplemental intake of 1300 IU/d only in the winter, whereas participants with low skin reflectance and low sun exposure need supplemental intake from 2100 to 3100 IU/d year-round to maintain a target serum level of 75 nmol/L."

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

"The Surprising Cause of Most 'Spider Bites'"



"The vast majority of "spider bites" are caused by something else, research shows. One study Vetter cited found that of 182 Southern California patients seeking treatment for spider bites, only 3.8 percent had actual spider bites, while 85.7 percent had infections.

And a national study found that nearly 30 percent of people with skin lesions who said they had a spider bite actually had methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections. Other things that can cause symptoms that mimic spider bites include biting fleas or bedbugs, allergies, poison oak and poison ivy, besides various viral and bacterial infections, Vetter said."



Huh. I actually recently had a skin infection that I assumed was a spider bite at first (until I realized there was no break in the skin).

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

"That was no typo: The median net worth of black Bostonians really is $8"



"Researchers conducted phone interviews about the financial status of households in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, Tulsa, and Washington, D.C. The survey asked respondents about their assets, liabilities, financial resources, personal savings, and investment activities.
The cities were selected because their diversity allowed researchers to disaggregate data among subgroups within broader racial categories. In Boston, the report said researchers focused on “multigenerational African Americans (referred here as US blacks), Caribbean blacks (including Haitians), Cape Verdeans (both black and white), Puerto Ricans, and Dominicans.” A total of 403 people were surveyed.
The household median net worth was $247,500 for whites; $8 for US blacks (the lowest of all five cities); $12,000 for Caribbean blacks; $3,020 for Puerto Ricans; and $0 for Dominicans (that’s not a typo either.) The sample size for Cape Verdeans was too small to calculate net worth, the report said."


"The problem with p-values"



"The problem of how to distinguish a genuine observation from random chance is a very old one. It’s been debated for centuries by philosophers and, more fruitfully, by statisticians. It turns on the distinction between induction and deduction. Science is an exercise in inductive reasoning: we are making observations and trying to infer general rules from them. Induction can never be certain. In contrast, deductive reasoning is easier: you deduce what you would expect to observe if some general rule were true and then compare it with what you actually see. The problem is that, for a scientist, deductive arguments don’t directly answer the question that you want to ask... 

Confusion between these two quite different probabilities lies at the heart of why p-values are so often misinterpreted. It’s called the error of the transposed conditional. Even quite respectable sources will tell you that the p-value is the probability that your observations occurred by chance. And that is plain wrong... 

the dichotomy between ‘significant’ and ‘not significant’ is absurd. There’s obviously very little difference between the implication of a p-value of 4.7 per cent and of 5.3 per cent, yet the former has come to be regarded as success and the latter as failure. And ‘success’ will get your work published, even in the most prestigious journals. That’s bad enough, but the real killer is that, if you observe a ‘just significant’ result, say P = 0.047 (4.7 per cent) in a single test, and claim to have made a discovery, the chance that you are wrong is at least 26 per cent, and could easily be more than 80 per cent."



FB: "it’s of little use to say that your observations would be rare if there were no real difference between the pills (which is what the p-value tells you), unless you can say whether or not the observations would also be rare when there is a true difference between the pills"